Power Shift: How Departures and Data Are Redrawing the IPL 2025 Playoff Race

IPL 2025: Crunch Time After 58 Matches: Who’s Rising and Who’s Reeling

With 58 matches in the books, the playoff picture is finally starting to take shape. But this season’s story has taken a turn: a schedule reshuffle and the departure of overseas stars have tilted the balance. So, who’s still soaring, and who’s suddenly scrambling? Let’s dive into the data.

Reminder: How the Rankings Work

To make fair comparisons across teams with uneven match counts, I’ve normalized all player ratings as if every franchise had played 11 matches (the fewest any team has played so far). Players who missed games aren’t penalized, but are less likely to rack up run and wicket aggregates which inherently reduce their impact. (More on the model and methodology here).

The Top 3: Who’s Lighting It Up?

1. Suryakumar Yadav - The Sky‑High Accelerator

SKY has taken off since the last update, vaulting to No. 1 overall. He ranks top‑five in both Aggression and Consistency, averaging 64 at a searing strike rate of 170 - all while batting in the third‑toughest conditions across the league.

2. Jos Buttler - The Consistency King

Buttler’s machine keeps humming: 500 runs, a 71 average, and 164 SR. But while those raw numbers impress, Gujarat games have averaged 195 runs compared to 180 in Mumbai - making SKY’s performances more impactful in context.

3. Prasidh Krishna - The Titan Enforcer

Still the tournament’s leading bowler by most metrics. No. 1 in Run Restriction and No. 2 in Wicket Frequency. He’s slipped slightly after a couple of quieter outings (1‑37, 1‑47), but remains Gujarat’s frontline force.

The Strugglers: Who’s Feeling the Heat?

• Rishabh Pant remains bottom of the table, averaging 12 with a SR of 99.

• Shimron Hetmyer has faltered as Rajasthan’s finisher, a major reason for their struggles and placing him 2nd lowest this season

• Matheesha Pathirana has been expensive for Chennai, conceding over 10 per over and weakening their death-bowling edge.

Feature: Who’s Hurt Most by the Schedule Shake-Up?

A late-season reschedule means several overseas stars are now gone - some for the rest of the IPL, others until after the playoffs. Here’s who’s missing, and how badly it hurts:

Out for the Season

• Josh Hazlewood (RCB) – The biggest blow. He leads the Wicket Frequency charts and ranks as RCB’s 3rd‑most impactful player.

• Mitchell Starc (DC) – Underwhelming numbers (10+ econ) but still a proven performer in high-pressure matches.

• Others – Jofra Archer (RR) and Jake Fraser‑McGurk (DC) had already been dropped or had a minimal impact.

  
  

Missing the Playoffs

Team	Key Departures	Model Impact
GT	Jos Buttler, Kagiso Rabada	Massive. Buttler ranks No. 2 overall.
RCB	Jacob Bethell, Lungi Ngidi	Manageable - but worsens the Hazlewood hit.
PBKS	Marco Jansen	Impactful since Jansen is a Top-10 Run Restrictor.
MI	Ryan Rickelton, Will Jacks	Not core players. SKY, Bumrah, and Boult remain, keeping MI's chances alive and kicking.
DC	Tristan Stubbs	Stubbs ranks 18th overall and is a key performer for DC - this will be a difficult blow.

Team Power Ratings (0–100)

Before Absentees: GT 100 · MI 62 · PBKS 61 · RCB 51 · DC 33

After Absentees: GT 100 · MI 83 · PBKS 63 · RCB 42 · DC 29

Takeaway: Gujarat’s lead shrinks but remains strong. Mumbai stays largely intact. RCB's title shot dims without Hazlewood.

Next Time

Next week, I’ll break down the final four: their biggest weapons, exploitable gaps, and a prediction engine-driven preview of the playoffs. Stay tuned!